8.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 47.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 48.8%), based on 8.6K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 85% → 37%
Best in Classical (61%), worst in Bullet (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 56.9% win rate for white (395 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (50.2%) outperforms Bullet (43.6%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 43.2%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 206 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 56.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-60.9%) win rate for white, based on 395 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 41.8%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 41.4%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 37.3% (90% CI: 31.4%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 174 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.2%-45.1%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.7%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-53.3%) win rate for white (724 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.
The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.