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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System

373K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.7%Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 50.8%Based on 373K games
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 50.8%
Outcome Distribution
48.7%3.9%47.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nc3
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System
Analyzen=373K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 50.8%), based on 373K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.0% win rate (11,238 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (26,079 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.7% win rate (43,839 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.2% win rate (61,927 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (66,792 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (62,681 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.0% win rate (51,157 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.9% win rate (38,746 games)
  • 2500+: 51.6% win rate (10,142 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.7% win rate (246 games)
  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (128,416 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (173,308 games)
  • Rapid: 47.9% win rate (66,952 games)
  • Classical: 46.2% win rate (3,679 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (3,907 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (5,210 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (2,099 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (7,378 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (13,319 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (5,274 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (9,143 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (23,495 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (10,773 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (395 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (13,428 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (29,993 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (17,316 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (16,189 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (33,241 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (15,962 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (1,370 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.1% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (20,219 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (31,403 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (10,440 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (528 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (23,535 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (23,680 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (3,816 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (25,740 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (11,770 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (1,205 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (8,877 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (1,197 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 373K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (10K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.7%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 46.7% (90% CI: 41.5%-51.9%) win rate for white (246 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.5%) win rate for white (128K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white (173K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.2%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.6%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.