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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.8%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 51.5%Based on 15K games
0%50.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
48.8%4.0%47.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.b4
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 50.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 51.5%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 36% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 36.4% win rate (52 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.1% win rate (188 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.0% win rate (574 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (1,178 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.4% win rate (2,289 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.9% win rate (3,128 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.0% win rate (3,949 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.9% win rate (3,065 games)
  • 2500+: 53.3% win rate (523 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Blitz (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (4,296 games)
  • Blitz: 48.3% win rate (8,400 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (2,164 games)
  • Classical: 53.8% win rate (85 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 33.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (169 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (310 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (94 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (632 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (537 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,230 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (484 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,951 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,113 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (2,370 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,157 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,669 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (237 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (393 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.6% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (523 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.2%) outperforms Classical (53.8%) by -4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 45.1% (90% CI: 39.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 188 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 43.6%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 574 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 49.7%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 523 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.4%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.2%) win rate for white (8.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.9%-51.5%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.