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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System

63K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 52.0%Based on 63K games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%4.2%46.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.d3
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System
Analyzen=63K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 52.0%), based on 63K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.1% win rate (1,320 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.8% win rate (3,506 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (6,417 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (10,178 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.8% win rate (12,375 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (11,233 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (10,101 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.2% win rate (6,504 games)
  • 2500+: 54.4% win rate (882 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in UltraBullet (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 37.6% win rate (69 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (24,489 games)
  • Blitz: 49.2% win rate (30,257 games)
  • Rapid: 47.7% win rate (7,372 games)
  • Classical: 45.2% win rate (329 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (638 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (497 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (177 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,520 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (1,600 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (362 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (2,081 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,365 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (932 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (3,056 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (5,474 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,567 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (4,002 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (6,318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,915 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (126 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (4,072 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (5,556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,527 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (4,422 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (4,977 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (681 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (3,932 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (2,359 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (766 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.8% expected score (111 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 63K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (882 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (37.6%) by 13.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 48.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 54.4% (90% CI: 51.6%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 882 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.3%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.7%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.6%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a 45.2% (90% CI: 40.8%-49.7%) win rate for white (329 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.