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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line

48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.5%Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.9%Based on 48K games
0%53.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.9%
Outcome Distribution
51.6%3.8%44.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c3
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line
Analyzen=48K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 53.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.2% and 53.9%), based on 48K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.4% win rate (75 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.3% win rate (409 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.5% win rate (1,161 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.9% win rate (2,822 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.6% win rate (5,767 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (9,811 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.3% win rate (13,470 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.3% win rate (12,329 games)
  • 2500+: 53.6% win rate (2,582 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (83%), worst in Classical (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 82.6% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (22,425 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (22,743 games)
  • Rapid: 52.1% win rate (3,154 games)
  • Classical: 50.8% win rate (94 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (204 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 29.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (486 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (577 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (94 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,006 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,453 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (354 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (2,027 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,964 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (741 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (3,191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (5,602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (976 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (5,352 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (7,459 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (648 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (7,723 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (4,308 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (296 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (2,389 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.5% expected score (182 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 48K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (2.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Classical (50.8%) by 1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 50.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 409 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.4%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.8%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.5%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line is statistically favors white with a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.