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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System

23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.0%Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.5%Based on 23K games
0%51.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
48.6%4.7%46.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.b3
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System
Analyzen=23K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 51.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.5%), based on 23K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.2% win rate (183 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.5% win rate (569 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.7% win rate (1,452 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (2,766 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.7% win rate (4,129 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.1% win rate (4,735 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (4,741 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.4% win rate (3,949 games)
  • 2500+: 54.2% win rate (787 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Rapid (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (5,384 games)
  • Blitz: 48.6% win rate (13,999 games)
  • Rapid: 47.2% win rate (3,791 games)
  • Classical: 54.9% win rate (136 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (72 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (90 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (169 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (332 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (323 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (877 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (247 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (482 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (1,658 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (601 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (775 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (2,354 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (932 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (864 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (2,827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,021 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (877 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (3,196 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (657 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (2,463 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (215 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (555 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (202 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (30 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 23K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.2% win rate for white (787 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.3%) outperforms Rapid (47.2%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 44.2% (90% CI: 38.2%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 49.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 569 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 54.2% (90% CI: 51.3%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 787 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.4%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.3%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.5%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System has a 54.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-61.8%) win rate for white (136 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Kieseritzky System is statistically balanced with a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.