TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System

31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 51.2% – 52.2%Based on 31K games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.2% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%4.2%46.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Be2
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System
Analyzen=31K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.2% and 52.2%), based on 31K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~54%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.4% win rate (367 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.2% win rate (1,179 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.8% win rate (2,994 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (6,302 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.2% win rate (8,608 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.9% win rate (6,870 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.2% win rate (3,666 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.4% win rate (1,155 games)
  • 2500+: 55.8% win rate (211 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (16 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (5,845 games)
  • Blitz: 49.4% win rate (17,902 games)
  • Rapid: 49.4% win rate (7,222 games)
  • Classical: 49.0% win rate (367 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (181 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (146 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (463 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (588 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (122 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (664 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (1,802 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (510 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,062 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (3,656 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,516 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (67 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,132 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (5,000 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (2,299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (175 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (973 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (3,791 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (2,018 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (84 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (840 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (2,174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (629 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (424 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (647 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (106 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 31K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (367 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.3%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 1.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 54.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 367 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 55.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 211 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.4%) win rate for white (7.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System has a 49.0% (90% CI: 44.7%-53.3%) win rate for white (367 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Aronin System is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.