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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation

81K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.1%Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 51.4%Based on 81K games
0%51.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 51.4%
Outcome Distribution
48.4%5.3%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.g3
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation
Analyzen=81K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 51.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.8% and 51.4%), based on 81K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.1% win rate (134 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (558 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.8% win rate (1,704 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (4,430 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (9,030 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (15,232 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.8% win rate (22,143 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.7% win rate (21,977 games)
  • 2500+: 49.7% win rate (6,045 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 48.5% win rate (22,320 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (49,515 games)
  • Rapid: 48.0% win rate (8,950 games)
  • Classical: 43.2% win rate (467 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (66 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (53 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (258 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (228 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (72 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (662 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (822 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (215 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,292 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (2,444 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (638 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,126 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (5,378 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (1,406 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (2,719 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (10,189 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (2,173 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (151 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,978 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (14,214 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (2,864 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (87 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (6,647 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (13,795 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,572 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (2,392 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (72 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 81K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (22K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.5%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 39.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 134 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 42.4%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 558 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.0%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.8%) win rate for white (50K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.9%) win rate for white (8.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 39.5%-47.0%) win rate for white (467 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.