7.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 45.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.3% and 46.2%), based on 7.8K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 44% → 50%
Best in Classical (51%), worst in Blitz (43%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.3%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.6% win rate for white (300 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (44.0%) outperforms Blitz (42.5%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 40.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 261 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 39.6%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 682 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 41.5%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 41.0%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 42.0% (90% CI: 40.1%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 41.1%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 300 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 42.2%-45.7%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.4%-43.7%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 42.1%-47.8%) win rate for white (845 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Scheveningen Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.3%-44.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.