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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line

1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.3%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 54.6%Based on 1.3K games
0%52.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 54.6%
Outcome Distribution
50.6%3.4%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
10.Qe2
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line
Analyzen=1.3K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a 52.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 54.6%), based on 1.3K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 73% → 61%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 73.3% win rate (6 games)
  • 1400-1599: 81.0% win rate (9 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.9% win rate (23 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.3% win rate (76 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (351 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.8% win rate (723 games)
  • 2500+: 60.9% win rate (147 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (60%), worst in Classical (39%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 53.6% win rate (350 games)
  • Blitz: 48.4% win rate (886 games)
  • Rapid: 60.2% win rate (94 games)
  • Classical: 38.5% win rate (5 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (278 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (508 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (50 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (107 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 66.5% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 60.9% win rate for white (147 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (60.2%) outperforms Blitz (48.4%) by 11.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 351 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 723 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a 60.9% (90% CI: 54.3%-67.4%) win rate for white, based on 147 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a 53.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-58.0%) win rate for white (350 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-51.2%) win rate for white (886 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line is statistically balanced with a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-52.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.