11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 47.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 48.5%), based on 11K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 42%
Best in Classical (59%), worst in Bullet (45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (576 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (49.8%) outperforms Bullet (44.5%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 232 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 576 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.8%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 41.5% (90% CI: 39.0%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 977 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-45.9%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.4%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-52.8%) win rate for white (717 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.