3.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 48.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.1% and 49.8%), based on 3.6K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 33% → 50%
Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Classical (39%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.2% win rate for white (961 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.2%) outperforms Rapid (44.8%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 38.3%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 101 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 44.6% (90% CI: 39.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 291 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.2%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 593 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 999 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 961 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 43.5%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 445 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 42.7%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 145 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-47.9%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.4%-50.0%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 40.6%-49.1%) win rate for white (368 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Dekker Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.