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Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation

73K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.7%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.0%Based on 73K games
0%52.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.0%
Outcome Distribution
48.2%9.0%42.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.c4
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation
Analyzen=73K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate9.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 52.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 53.0%), based on 73K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.9% win rate (68 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.0% win rate (304 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (719 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.4% win rate (1,899 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (4,412 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.3% win rate (10,889 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (19,355 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (27,681 games)
  • 2500+: 50.4% win rate (7,820 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (78%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 77.8% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 49.4% win rate (18,169 games)
  • Blitz: 48.1% win rate (46,326 games)
  • Rapid: 46.1% win rate (8,094 games)
  • Classical: 41.8% win rate (555 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (261 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (344 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (539 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (983 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (350 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (2,401 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (646 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (92 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,071 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (7,073 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,591 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (3,546 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (13,134 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,468 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,529 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (18,495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,599 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,793 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (3,743 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (270 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 73K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.4% win rate for white (7.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Classical (41.8%) by 7.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a sharpness score of 91.0 (decisive), meaning 91.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 41.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 304 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 46.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 719 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 13.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.5%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.0%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 38.4%-45.2%) win rate for white (555 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation is statistically favors white with a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.