1.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit has a 57.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.0% and 59.9%), based on 1.1K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 20% → 55%
Best in Bullet (55%), worst in Classical (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (412 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (53.7%) outperforms Rapid (48.6%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit has a sharpness score of 92.7 (decisive), meaning 92.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-61.2%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 512 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 412 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-60.1%) win rate for white (254 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.8%-56.7%) win rate for white (768 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.
The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.