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Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit

6.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score58.8%Range (90% confident): 57.8% – 59.8%Based on 6.6K games
0%58.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 57.8% – 59.8%
Outcome Distribution
55.0%7.5%37.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.d4
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit
Analyzen=6.6K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 58.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 57.8% and 59.8%), based on 6.6K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +18.9% · Breakpoint: 1600-1799

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 35% → 57%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 35.1% win rate (17 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.5% win rate (46 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.4% win rate (104 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.6% win rate (183 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.4% win rate (260 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (451 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.0% win rate (1,140 games)
  • 2200-2499: 55.9% win rate (2,987 games)
  • 2500+: 56.8% win rate (1,439 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (56%), worst in Classical (51%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 55.7% win rate (2,273 games)
  • Blitz: 54.6% win rate (3,987 games)
  • Rapid: 54.2% win rate (346 games)
  • Classical: 51.1% win rate (21 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.7% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 71.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (76 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (83 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (120 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (110 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (249 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (55 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (290 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (753 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (92 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (705 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (2,184 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (92 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.3% expected score (862 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (541 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 74.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
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Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.0%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.8% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.7%) outperforms Rapid (54.2%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a sharpness score of 92.5 (decisive), meaning 92.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 56.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 104 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 55.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-61.5%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 46.4%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 260 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 44.2%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 451 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 51.6%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.4%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 56.8% (90% CI: 54.6%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.0%-57.4%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.3%-55.9%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-58.6%) win rate for white (346 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit is statistically favors white with a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.0%-56.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.