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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit

81K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.1%Based on 81K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.1%
Outcome Distribution
46.2%3.1%50.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bc4
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit
Analyzen=81K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 47.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.1%), based on 81K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 40% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.3% win rate (1,545 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.8% win rate (4,395 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.6% win rate (8,482 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.8% win rate (14,425 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (19,329 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.7% win rate (17,954 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (10,017 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.6% win rate (4,011 games)
  • 2500+: 55.2% win rate (657 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (48%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.7% win rate (71 games)
  • Bullet: 44.6% win rate (29,305 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (40,002 games)
  • Rapid: 47.1% win rate (11,025 games)
  • Classical: 47.5% win rate (412 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (738 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (594 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (207 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (2,151 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (1,714 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (502 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (3,454 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (3,899 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (5,354 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (7,013 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (1,954 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (84 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (6,650 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (9,746 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (2,796 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (127 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (5,364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (9,946 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (2,537 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (3,263 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (5,175 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,541 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,019 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (1,586 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (401 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (312 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (329 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 81K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 55.2% win rate for white (657 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.7%) by 6.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 40.3% (90% CI: 38.3%-42.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.6%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 52.0%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 657 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.1%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.5%) win rate for white (40K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.9%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a 47.5% (90% CI: 43.5%-51.6%) win rate for white (412 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.