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Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit

798K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.0%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.1%Based on 798K games
0%53.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.1%3.7%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit
n=798K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 53.1%), based on 798K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.0 · Trap factor: +8.1 · n=798K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.8% win rate (32,496 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.7% win rate (69,551 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.9% win rate (114,340 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.5% win rate (158,315 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.4% win rate (162,326 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.7% win rate (137,279 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.9% win rate (78,165 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.8% win rate (38,462 games)
  • 2500+: 49.6% win rate (6,688 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.0% win rate (2,030 games)
  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (247,397 games)
  • Blitz: 51.8% win rate (380,190 games)
  • Rapid: 52.3% win rate (161,526 games)
  • Classical: 53.1% win rate (6,479 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (6,732 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (18,423 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (7,292 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (15,434 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (36,162 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (17,654 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (252 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (25,421 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (59,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (28,683 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (863 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (619 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (35,694 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (80,321 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (39,668 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (2,013 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (635 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (42,925 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (80,904 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (35,808 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (2,054 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (242 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (45,352 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (66,823 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (23,802 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (1,060 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (183 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (39,086 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (31,223 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (7,492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.3% expected score (181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (30,435 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (6,766 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (1,115 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (6,318 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (352 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 798K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (162K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.0%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 114K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 158K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 162K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 137K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.8%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.5%) win rate for white (247K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-51.9%) win rate for white (380K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.5%) win rate for white (162K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.1%-54.1%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.