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Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation

281K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.0%Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.2%Based on 281K games
0%49.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.2%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%4.5%48.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bd3
Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation
Analyzen=281K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 49.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 49.2%), based on 281K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 38% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 37.5% win rate (325 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.1% win rate (1,374 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.3% win rate (5,298 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (15,614 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.7% win rate (36,451 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (60,027 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (69,311 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.3% win rate (75,202 games)
  • 2500+: 49.9% win rate (16,936 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.9% win rate (23 games)
  • Bullet: 45.7% win rate (82,088 games)
  • Blitz: 47.2% win rate (169,724 games)
  • Rapid: 47.6% win rate (27,378 games)
  • Classical: 47.8% win rate (1,325 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (215 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (94 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (762 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (511 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (2,105 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (2,651 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (526 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (4,778 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (8,937 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.7% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (7,902 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (22,991 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (5,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (11,829 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (38,990 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (8,741 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (16,881 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (45,141 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (7,015 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (26,024 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (45,380 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (3,720 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (78 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (11,592 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5,029 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (303 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 281K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (47.6%) outperforms Bullet (45.7%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 37.5% (90% CI: 33.2%-42.0%) win rate for white, based on 325 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 41.9%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.1%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.0%) win rate for white (82K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (170K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.1%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.0%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-46.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.