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Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation

911K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.9%Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.0%Based on 911K games
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%4.6%45.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...d6
Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation
Analyzen=911K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 51.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 52.0%), based on 911K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 38% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 37.9% win rate (211 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.1% win rate (1,159 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (6,705 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (35,032 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.5% win rate (134,712 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (286,538 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (262,254 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.1% win rate (157,672 games)
  • 2500+: 50.0% win rate (27,027 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (50%), worst in UltraBullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.2% win rate (58 games)
  • Bullet: 49.4% win rate (280,278 games)
  • Blitz: 49.6% win rate (542,579 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (85,375 games)
  • Classical: 49.4% win rate (3,020 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.0% expected score (152 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (866 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (230 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 63.0% expected score (60 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (4,729 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,759 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (203 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (17,554 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (15,985 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (1,366 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (41,565 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (83,230 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (9,413 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (495 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (66,644 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (186,166 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (32,469 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (74,952 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (155,660 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (30,691 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (934 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (57,168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (89,582 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (10,716 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (16,648 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (9,920 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (445 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 79.0% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 911K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (287K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.2%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 37.9% (90% CI: 32.5%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 211 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 0.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 135K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 287K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 262K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 158K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white (280K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate for white (543K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white (85K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.9%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.