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Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score43.1%Range (90% confident): 42.3% – 43.8%Based on 12K games
0%43.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.3% – 43.8%
Outcome Distribution
41.4%3.4%55.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Qb6
Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation
Analyzen=12K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 43.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 42.3% and 43.8%), based on 12K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.2% win rate (24 games)
  • 1000-1199: 32.1% win rate (156 games)
  • 1200-1399: 40.5% win rate (434 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.5% win rate (953 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.1% win rate (2,320 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.2% win rate (2,028 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.9% win rate (3,570 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.3% win rate (2,098 games)
  • 2500+: 47.9% win rate (154 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (42%), worst in UltraBullet (27%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 27.3% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 40.9% win rate (6,312 games)
  • Blitz: 42.1% win rate (4,736 games)
  • Rapid: 40.1% win rate (668 games)
  • Classical: 40.5% win rate (17 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (75 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.3% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (191 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (371 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (468 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (109 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (1,170 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (824 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,112 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (88 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.5% expected score (2,296 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (1,068 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (202 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (740 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 40.6%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.3% win rate for white (2.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (42.1%) outperforms Rapid (40.1%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 32.1% (90% CI: 26.1%-38.3%) win rate for white, based on 156 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 40.5% (90% CI: 36.7%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 434 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 39.5% (90% CI: 37.0%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 953 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.4%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 41.2% (90% CI: 39.4%-43.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 39.9% (90% CI: 38.6%-41.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 42.5%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 41.4%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 154 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 40.9% (90% CI: 39.9%-42.0%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.9%-43.3%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 37.0%-43.2%) win rate for white (668 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation is slightly favors black with a 41.4% (90% CI: 40.6%-42.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.