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Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation

476K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 49.3% – 49.5%Based on 476K games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.3% – 49.5%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%5.7%47.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Nxc6
Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=476K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 49.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.3% and 49.5%), based on 476K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~43%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.0% win rate (2,192 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.0% win rate (6,810 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.6% win rate (18,522 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.8% win rate (40,520 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (71,602 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (101,511 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.3% win rate (106,184 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.4% win rate (92,657 games)
  • 2500+: 43.0% win rate (35,971 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (382 games)
  • Bullet: 46.8% win rate (242,341 games)
  • Blitz: 46.4% win rate (197,366 games)
  • Rapid: 45.0% win rate (34,069 games)
  • Classical: 43.2% win rate (1,811 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (1,258 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (771 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (154 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (3,432 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,687 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (653 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 7.9% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (9,095 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (7,336 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,991 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (19,310 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (16,569 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (4,350 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (34,204 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (30,324 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (6,552 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (461 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (49,330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (43,971 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (7,690 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (454 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (50,153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (48,538 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (7,095 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (332 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (49,805 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (38,262 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (4,448 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (118 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (25,754 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (8,908 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (1,136 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 68.4% expected score (167 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 476K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.4% win rate for white (93K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.8%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 41.2%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 102K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 106K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 93K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.6%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 19.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-53.9%) win rate for white (382 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate for white (242K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.6%) win rate for white (197K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.4%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.3%-45.1%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.0%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.