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Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation

33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.7%Based on 33K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.7%
Outcome Distribution
45.2%6.1%48.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bc5
Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation
Analyzen=33K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 48.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.7%), based on 33K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 23% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 23.1% win rate (5 games)
  • 1000-1199: 59.0% win rate (18 games)
  • 1200-1399: 67.8% win rate (70 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (296 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.5% win rate (889 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (2,478 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.1% win rate (5,985 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.8% win rate (14,832 games)
  • 2500+: 47.0% win rate (8,526 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (46%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 45.2% win rate (9,840 games)
  • Blitz: 45.1% win rate (21,127 games)
  • Rapid: 45.5% win rate (2,052 games)
  • Classical: 45.9% win rate (78 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 67.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 68.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (102 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (141 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (230 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (558 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (486 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,685 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (291 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (1,009 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (4,363 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (585 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (2,868 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (11,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (879 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (5,101 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (3,279 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (144 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 67.8% win rate for white (70 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (45.1%) outperforms Classical (45.9%) by -0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 296 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 889 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 42.1%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.1%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.0%) win rate for white (9.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.7%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 43.7%-47.3%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.