4.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 50.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 51.2%), based on 4.8K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 54% → 57%
Best in Rapid (49%), worst in Classical (22%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.5% win rate for white (295 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (48.1%) outperforms Rapid (49.4%) by -1.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 40.7%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 186 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 43.9% (90% CI: 39.5%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 346 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 837 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 56.5% (90% CI: 51.7%-61.2%) win rate for white, based on 295 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-49.1%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-53.6%) win rate for white (380 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.