186 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation has a 57.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 63.1%), based on 186 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 41%
Best in Rapid (69%), worst in Bullet (50%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | ||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 186 rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 58.2% win rate for white (118 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (56.3%) outperforms Bullet (50.4%) by 5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation has a 58.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-65.5%) win rate for white, based on 118 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-63.5%) win rate for white (122 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation is statistically balanced with a 55.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-61.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.