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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line

23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.3%Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.9%Based on 23K games
0%52.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.9%
Outcome Distribution
49.4%5.8%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.Nb3
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line
Analyzen=23K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.8%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 52.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 52.9%), based on 23K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1000-1199: 31.8% win rate (41 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.9% win rate (150 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.2% win rate (434 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (1,627 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (4,377 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.7% win rate (7,290 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.1% win rate (6,960 games)
  • 2500+: 53.5% win rate (1,849 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (52%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (8,074 games)
  • Blitz: 48.2% win rate (12,821 games)
  • Rapid: 47.3% win rate (1,699 games)
  • Classical: 52.3% win rate (139 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (68 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (219 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (447 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (962 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (912 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (2,915 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (476 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (73 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (2,066 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (4,645 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (541 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (2,924 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (3,645 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (384 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (1,473 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (344 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 23K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (1.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Rapid (47.3%) by 4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 47.9% (90% CI: 41.2%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 150 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 52.2% (90% CI: 48.3%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 434 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.6%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.7%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.9%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.3%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a 52.3% (90% CI: 45.4%-59.2%) win rate for white (139 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.7%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line is statistically balanced with a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.