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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation

36K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.3%Based on 36K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.3%
Outcome Distribution
50.5%4.6%44.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.O-O-O
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation
Analyzen=36K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 52.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 53.3%), based on 36K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.5% win rate (33 games)
  • 1000-1199: 60.2% win rate (192 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.6% win rate (648 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.5% win rate (2,255 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.1% win rate (5,651 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.0% win rate (9,933 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (10,062 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.9% win rate (6,199 games)
  • 2500+: 50.1% win rate (1,449 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (8%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 7.7% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 52.3% win rate (12,065 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (20,871 games)
  • Rapid: 49.0% win rate (3,263 games)
  • Classical: 49.4% win rate (218 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 72.5% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.4% expected score (116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (333 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 69.0% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (1,008 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (1,861 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (3,258 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (490 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (2,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (6,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (1,079 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (71 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,821 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,092 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,472 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,352 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,040 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (403 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 36K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 60.2% win rate for white (192 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (49.4%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 60.2% (90% CI: 54.4%-65.9%) win rate for white, based on 192 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 648 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.0%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.3%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.4%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 43.9%-55.0%) win rate for white (218 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.