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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation

37K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.9%Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.3%Based on 37K games
0%53.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.3%
Outcome Distribution
51.7%4.4%43.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Qd2
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation
Analyzen=37K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 53.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.5% and 54.3%), based on 37K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.8% win rate (17 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.8% win rate (193 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.3% win rate (914 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.4% win rate (3,037 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.1% win rate (8,047 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.1% win rate (12,392 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.8% win rate (8,889 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.6% win rate (3,199 games)
  • 2500+: 54.2% win rate (518 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Rapid (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 53.4% win rate (10,582 games)
  • Blitz: 51.4% win rate (22,111 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (4,321 games)
  • Classical: 52.7% win rate (191 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (138 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (485 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (382 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 72.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (1,221 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (1,584 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (224 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (2,220 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (4,961 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (823 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,675 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (8,040 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,597 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (2,301 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (5,258 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,161 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,685 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (350 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (372 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (140 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 37K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (914 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.4%) outperforms Classical (52.7%) by 0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 57.8% (90% CI: 52.0%-63.6%) win rate for white, based on 193 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 914 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 518 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.2%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.9%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.5%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-58.6%) win rate for white (191 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.