3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 48.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 50.0%), based on 3.0K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 78% → 46%
Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 46.7% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (46.5%) outperforms Rapid (43.4%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 38.6% (90% CI: 33.7%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 259 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 971 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.5%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 379 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.9%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 45.5% (90% CI: 43.5%-47.4%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line has a 43.4% (90% CI: 36.4%-50.5%) win rate for white (131 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Alekhine Line is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.