TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon

304K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.1%Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.3%Based on 304K games
0%50.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.3%
Outcome Distribution
48.1%4.0%47.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...g6
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon
Analyzen=304K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 50.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.0% and 50.3%), based on 304K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.9% win rate (2,539 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (10,242 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (28,129 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.5% win rate (56,141 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.5% win rate (84,179 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (75,879 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.3% win rate (35,769 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.3% win rate (9,997 games)
  • 2500+: 51.8% win rate (997 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (49%), worst in UltraBullet (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.3% win rate (47 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (89,272 games)
  • Blitz: 48.3% win rate (165,363 games)
  • Rapid: 48.5% win rate (47,102 games)
  • Classical: 47.8% win rate (2,088 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,067 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (322 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (4,340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (4,585 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,287 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (10,148 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (14,047 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (3,867 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (17,438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (29,492 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (8,918 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (280 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (21,114 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (48,435 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (13,902 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (720 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (17,142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (45,351 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (12,532 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (846 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (11,598 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (18,576 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (5,447 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.6% expected score (144 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (5,597 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (3,576 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (816 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (828 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (157 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 304K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (10.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.3%) outperforms Classical (47.8%) by 0.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 10.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 997 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 11.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (89K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.5%) win rate for white (165K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.8%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-49.6%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.