2.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation has a 60.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 58.7% and 61.9%), based on 2.6K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 56%
Best in Bullet (59%), worst in Classical (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 54.6%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 60.4% win rate for white (508 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (58.5%) outperforms Rapid (55.0%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation has a sharpness score of 91.9 (decisive), meaning 91.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation has a 60.4% (90% CI: 56.8%-63.9%) win rate for white, based on 508 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 53.2%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 52.2%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 447 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 10.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation has a 58.5% (90% CI: 55.8%-61.1%) win rate for white (923 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-57.0%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.2% (90% CI: 54.6%-57.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.