2.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a 66.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 64.9% and 68.0%), based on 2.5K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~71%)
Best in Bullet (65%), worst in Rapid (53%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a 64.0% (90% CI: 62.4%-65.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 71.5% win rate for white (508 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (65.2%) outperforms Rapid (52.9%) by 12.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 41.0%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a 60.8% (90% CI: 57.2%-64.4%) win rate for white, based on 494 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a 63.8% (90% CI: 61.6%-65.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a 71.5% (90% CI: 68.2%-74.8%) win rate for white, based on 508 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a 65.2% (90% CI: 62.5%-67.8%) win rate for white (863 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a 63.7% (90% CI: 61.7%-65.8%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation is statistically favors white with a 64.0% (90% CI: 62.4%-65.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.