4.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 50.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 51.1%), based on 4.9K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 43% → 32%
Best in Classical (74%), worst in Rapid (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (651 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (48.3%) outperforms Rapid (43.6%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 45.9% (90% CI: 39.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 150 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 52.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 378 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 651 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 999 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 46.4% (90% CI: 43.6%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 836 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 40.4% (90% CI: 37.0%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 534 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 31.6% (90% CI: 26.5%-36.9%) win rate for white, based on 215 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.3%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.1%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a 43.6% (90% CI: 40.5%-46.8%) win rate for white (655 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.
The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.