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Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation

1.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.0%Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.1%Based on 1.9M games
0%50.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.9%4.3%47.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nc3
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation
Analyzen=1.9M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 50.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.0% and 50.1%), based on 1.9M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.2% win rate (10,474 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (42,036 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (115,754 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.7% win rate (258,347 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.8% win rate (438,162 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (493,540 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (350,368 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.5% win rate (191,459 games)
  • 2500+: 53.1% win rate (35,227 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.0% win rate (336 games)
  • Bullet: 48.1% win rate (748,826 games)
  • Blitz: 47.9% win rate (968,246 games)
  • Rapid: 47.2% win rate (210,632 games)
  • Classical: 44.1% win rate (7,327 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (5,018 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (4,353 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (20,011 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (17,587 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (4,385 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (48,644 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (54,045 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (12,801 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (229 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 33.1% expected score (78 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (91,957 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (134,655 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (30,559 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (95 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (138,790 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (240,951 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (55,963 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (2,363 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (157,213 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (271,069 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (62,722 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (2,478 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 77.9% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (145,284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (170,510 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (33,618 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (936 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (112,310 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (69,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (9,185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (164 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (29,599 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (5,293 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (301 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (35K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.0%) by 1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 258K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 438K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 494K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 350K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 191K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 42.5%-51.4%) win rate for white (336 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.2%) win rate for white (749K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.0%) win rate for white (968K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (211K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.2%-45.1%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-47.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.