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Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit

181K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.0%Range (90% confident): 43.8% – 44.2%Based on 181K games
0%44.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.8% – 44.2%
Outcome Distribution
42.1%3.8%54.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d5
Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit
Analyzen=181K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 44.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.8% and 44.2%), based on 181K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +1.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 94.4 · Trap factor: +8.4 · n=181K

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~44%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.0% win rate (29,916 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.0% win rate (45,489 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.4% win rate (41,621 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.6% win rate (29,374 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.5% win rate (17,329 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.8% win rate (11,344 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.0% win rate (4,776 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.1% win rate (1,233 games)
  • 2500+: 45.6% win rate (241 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (45%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.2% win rate (232 games)
  • Bullet: 44.0% win rate (27,216 games)
  • Blitz: 42.6% win rate (88,028 games)
  • Rapid: 40.9% win rate (62,951 games)
  • Classical: 37.2% win rate (2,896 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (4,615 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (16,456 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (8,745 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (5,048 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (23,066 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (16,997 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (314 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (4,679 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (17,983 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (18,086 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (809 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (4,204 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (12,713 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (11,296 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (3,441 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (8,520 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (4,891 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (2,465 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (6,698 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (2,064 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 27.9% expected score (109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (2,226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (787 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (362 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (84 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (236 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (1)
Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit
43.3%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 181K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 55.0% win rate for white (29K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (59.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (53.3%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.4%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.5%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 48.0% (90% CI: 42.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 241 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-58.7%) win rate for white (232 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.1%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.7%) win rate for white (88K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.4%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit has a 59.4% (90% CI: 57.9%-60.9%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit is statistically favors white with a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.