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Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score37.2%Range (90% confident): 36.5% – 38.0%Based on 11K games
0%37.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 36.5% – 38.0%
Outcome Distribution
35.4%3.7%61.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nb8
Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation
Analyzen=11K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 37.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 36.5% and 38.0%), based on 11K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.2% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 35% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 34.6% win rate (1,723 games)
  • 1000-1199: 35.1% win rate (2,379 games)
  • 1200-1399: 34.7% win rate (2,470 games)
  • 1400-1599: 35.9% win rate (1,672 games)
  • 1600-1799: 37.6% win rate (1,272 games)
  • 1800-1999: 36.8% win rate (707 games)
  • 2000-2199: 31.9% win rate (370 games)
  • 2200-2499: 36.4% win rate (203 games)
  • 2500+: 44.0% win rate (11 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (44%), worst in Classical (26%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 41.1% win rate (1,998 games)
  • Blitz: 35.9% win rate (5,321 games)
  • Rapid: 31.7% win rate (3,254 games)
  • Classical: 25.6% win rate (223 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (296 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (732 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.4% expected score (681 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (357 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (1,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.4% expected score (618 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (1,338 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.7% expected score (732 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (404 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.9% expected score (750 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (470 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 14.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.1% expected score (254 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (553 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (436 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (119 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 32.5% expected score (172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (76 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 28.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 61.0% (90% CI: 60.2%-61.7%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 65.0% win rate for white (370 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (69.3%) outperforms Bullet (57.1%) by 12.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 60.2% (90% CI: 58.3%-62.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 61.6% (90% CI: 59.9%-63.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 61.7% (90% CI: 60.1%-63.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 61.5% (90% CI: 59.6%-63.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 58.9% (90% CI: 56.6%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 58.8% (90% CI: 55.7%-61.8%) win rate for white, based on 707 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 65.0% (90% CI: 60.9%-69.0%) win rate for white, based on 370 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 59.9% (90% CI: 54.2%-65.5%) win rate for white, based on 203 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 55.3%-59.0%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 60.5% (90% CI: 59.3%-61.6%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 63.6% (90% CI: 62.2%-65.0%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a 69.3% (90% CI: 64.1%-74.2%) win rate for white (223 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation is statistically favors white with a 61.0% (90% CI: 60.2%-61.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.