TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack

527 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score58.6%Range (90% confident): 55.2% – 62.0%Based on 527 games
0%58.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.2% – 62.0%
Outcome Distribution
46.6%23.9%29.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
10.Qd3
Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack
Analyzen=527
Avg Length51 moves
Sharpness76%
Draw Rate23.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack has a 58.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.2% and 62.0%), based on 527 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.0% · Blitz best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 64% → 43%

1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1400-1599: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • 1600-1799: 60.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.2% win rate (37 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.7% win rate (54 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.0% win rate (178 games)
  • 2500+: 42.7% win rate (243 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (51%), worst in Rapid (39%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 40.2% win rate (129 games)
  • Blitz: 51.2% win rate (316 games)
  • Rapid: 38.5% win rate (70 games)
  • Classical: 40.7% win rate (12 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599—
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (130 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.8% expected score (120 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 69.1% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack has a 46.6% (90% CI: 43.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 527 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (178 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.2%) outperforms Rapid (38.5%) by 12.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack has a sharpness score of 76.1 (drawish), meaning 76.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 51 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack has a 51.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack has a 42.7% (90% CI: 37.6%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 243 Lichess games. Average game length is 66 moves with a 41.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack has a 40.2% (90% CI: 33.3%-47.4%) win rate for white (129 Lichess games). Draw rate is 32.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack has a 51.2% (90% CI: 46.6%-55.8%) win rate for white (316 Lichess games). Draw rate is 16.5%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Motzko Attack is statistically favors white with a 46.6% (90% CI: 43.1%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.