18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 50.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.6% and 50.8%), based on 18K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 43% → 37%
Best in Bullet (43%), worst in UltraBullet (29%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.7%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 46.0% win rate for white (5.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (43.3%) outperforms Classical (37.2%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a sharpness score of 84.3 (moderately decisive), meaning 84.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 35.1% (90% CI: 29.7%-40.7%) win rate for white, based on 202 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 36.8% (90% CI: 33.2%-40.4%) win rate for white, based on 473 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 41.2%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 902 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.5%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 10.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 40.9%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 19.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 36.7% (90% CI: 35.0%-38.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 28.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.3%-44.6%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.1%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.5%-44.0%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.3%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 35.1% (90% CI: 33.4%-36.8%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 24.8%.
In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation has a 37.2% (90% CI: 30.8%-43.8%) win rate for white (145 Lichess games). Draw rate is 27.0%.
The Ruy Lopez: Open Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation is statistically balanced with a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.7%-42.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.