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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation

84K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.3%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.6%Based on 84K games
0%46.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.6%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%4.3%51.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Na5
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation
Analyzen=84K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 46.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 46.6%), based on 84K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.7% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.1% win rate (4,393 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (9,349 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.6% win rate (15,388 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.2% win rate (17,395 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.8% win rate (13,615 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.9% win rate (10,422 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.9% win rate (6,556 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.4% win rate (4,873 games)
  • 2500+: 47.3% win rate (2,117 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 47.2% win rate (16,162 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (47,351 games)
  • Rapid: 41.3% win rate (19,809 games)
  • Classical: 37.1% win rate (784 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (2,079 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (1,000 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,320 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (5,246 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (1,743 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (9,135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (3,391 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,083 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (9,475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (4,620 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (217 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,895 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (7,388 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (4,076 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (256 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (1,889 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,652 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (2,745 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (4,066 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,304 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.2% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (805 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (3,167 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (896 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (938 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (1)
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit
56.0%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 84K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.5%) outperforms Bullet (49.8%) by 8.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 41.0%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.3%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.4%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.9%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation has a 58.5% (90% CI: 55.6%-61.4%) win rate for white (784 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.