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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense

684K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.5%Range (90% confident): 46.4% – 46.6%Based on 684K games
0%46.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.4% – 46.6%
Outcome Distribution
44.2%4.4%51.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nge7
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense
Analyzen=684K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 46.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.4% and 46.6%), based on 684K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.0% win rate (17,050 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.1% win rate (42,188 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.5% win rate (86,998 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.4% win rate (131,506 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.8% win rate (146,353 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.8% win rate (127,808 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.4% win rate (79,854 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.4% win rate (42,715 games)
  • 2500+: 41.9% win rate (9,894 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (68%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 67.8% win rate (42 games)
  • Bullet: 45.9% win rate (126,014 games)
  • Blitz: 44.3% win rate (403,809 games)
  • Rapid: 42.8% win rate (148,004 games)
  • Classical: 40.6% win rate (6,497 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (4,841 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (8,013 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (4,150 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (12,919 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (22,334 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (6,742 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (182 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (20,690 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (51,028 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (14,852 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (23,953 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (77,471 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (28,810 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (1,261 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (20,879 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (85,764 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (37,778 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (1,931 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (16,038 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (75,403 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (34,503 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (1,864 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (11,563 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (50,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (17,210 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (644 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (11,366 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (27,432 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (3,786 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (131 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (3,765 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (5,929 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (173 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (27 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (2)
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation
47.2%
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation
45.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 684K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (42K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.1%) outperforms Blitz (51.1%) by 1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 87K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 132K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 146K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.5%) win rate for white (126K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (404K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.3%) win rate for white (148K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.5%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.