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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation

65K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score58.3%Range (90% confident): 58.0% – 58.6%Based on 65K games
0%58.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 58.0% – 58.6%
Outcome Distribution
55.8%4.9%39.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.d4
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation
Analyzen=65K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 58.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 58.0% and 58.6%), based on 65K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.6% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 61%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.0% win rate (1,282 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.5% win rate (2,228 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.0% win rate (3,539 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.4% win rate (4,543 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (5,480 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.0% win rate (9,793 games)
  • 2000-2199: 57.6% win rate (16,725 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.2% win rate (18,537 games)
  • 2500+: 60.8% win rate (3,158 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (57%), worst in Classical (46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 56.9% win rate (14,849 games)
  • Blitz: 56.1% win rate (41,034 games)
  • Rapid: 53.1% win rate (8,869 games)
  • Classical: 46.3% win rate (533 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (258 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (608 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (412 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (531 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,119 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (564 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (1,837 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (909 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (915 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (2,360 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,176 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (92 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (883 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (3,300 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (1,180 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (117 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (1,567 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (6,532 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (137 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (2,999 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (12,089 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (1,556 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (81 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (5,304 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (11,710 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (1,477 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (46 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.8% expected score (1,638 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (1,479 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 55.5%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 65K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 60.8% win rate for white (3.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (56.9%) outperforms Classical (46.3%) by 10.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 57.6% (90% CI: 56.9%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 60.8% (90% CI: 59.3%-62.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.2%-57.6%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.5%) win rate for white (41K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.0%) win rate for white (8.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 42.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (533 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Mackenzie Variation is statistically favors white with a 55.8% (90% CI: 55.5%-56.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.