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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation

30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.6%Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 53.1%Based on 30K games
0%52.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 53.1%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%5.9%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bxc6
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation
Analyzen=30K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 53.1%), based on 30K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.1% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.2% win rate (1,611 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.6% win rate (2,724 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.0% win rate (3,886 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (3,734 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (2,965 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.3% win rate (2,511 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.2% win rate (3,899 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.7% win rate (6,795 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (1,621 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (6,426 games)
  • Blitz: 49.7% win rate (17,105 games)
  • Rapid: 47.1% win rate (5,883 games)
  • Classical: 42.7% win rate (325 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (390 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (738 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (481 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (597 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,455 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (655 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (722 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,022 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (577 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,795 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (95 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (609 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (908 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (105 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (558 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (1,342 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (563 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (718 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (2,571 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (594 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,578 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (4,916 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (288 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (677 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (923 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 30K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (3.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Classical (42.7%) by 9.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.7%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.8%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.3%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.2%) win rate for white (5.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 38.3%-47.2%) win rate for white (325 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.