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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred

5.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score60.8%Range (90% confident): 59.7% – 61.9%Based on 5.5K games
0%60.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 59.7% – 61.9%
Outcome Distribution
59.2%3.1%37.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bb4
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred
Analyzen=5.5K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 60.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 59.7% and 61.9%), based on 5.5K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.9% · Classical best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 57.1% win rate (1,209 games)
  • 1000-1199: 61.2% win rate (1,051 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.3% win rate (1,105 games)
  • 1400-1599: 61.9% win rate (1,060 games)
  • 1600-1799: 59.5% win rate (586 games)
  • 1800-1999: 59.7% win rate (254 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.7% win rate (125 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (150 games)
  • 2500+: 41.2% win rate (7 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (67%), worst in Blitz (57%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 57.4% win rate (717 games)
  • Blitz: 56.9% win rate (2,688 games)
  • Rapid: 62.5% win rate (2,008 games)
  • Classical: 66.8% win rate (134 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (139 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (480 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 62.5% expected score (577 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (446 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (420 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 77.7% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (580 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.9% expected score (374 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.6% expected score (142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.2% expected score (540 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (335 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (43 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (282 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 67.0% expected score (207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 66.6% expected score (131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (88 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (137 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 59.2% (90% CI: 58.1%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 61.9% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (62.5%) outperforms Bullet (57.4%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 57.1% (90% CI: 54.8%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 61.2% (90% CI: 58.8%-63.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 60.3% (90% CI: 57.9%-62.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 61.9% (90% CI: 59.5%-64.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 59.5% (90% CI: 56.1%-62.8%) win rate for white, based on 586 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 59.7% (90% CI: 54.6%-64.7%) win rate for white, based on 254 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 44.7% (90% CI: 37.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 125 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 44.6% (90% CI: 38.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 150 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 57.4% (90% CI: 54.4%-60.4%) win rate for white (717 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 56.9% (90% CI: 55.3%-58.4%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 62.5% (90% CI: 60.7%-64.2%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 66.8% (90% CI: 60.0%-73.3%) win rate for white (134 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred is statistically favors white with a 59.2% (90% CI: 58.1%-60.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.