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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score38.6%Range (90% confident): 37.9% – 39.3%Based on 13K games
0%38.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 37.9% – 39.3%
Outcome Distribution
36.2%4.9%59.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
12.d4
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line
Analyzen=13K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 38.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 37.9% and 39.3%), based on 13K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.2% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1000-1199: 25.2% win rate (56 games)
  • 1200-1399: 34.5% win rate (255 games)
  • 1400-1599: 33.3% win rate (955 games)
  • 1600-1799: 32.1% win rate (2,387 games)
  • 1800-1999: 34.0% win rate (4,126 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.0% win rate (3,383 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (1,672 games)
  • 2500+: 40.5% win rate (353 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~37%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 36.6% win rate (2,744 games)
  • Blitz: 36.3% win rate (8,109 games)
  • Rapid: 35.1% win rate (2,222 games)
  • Classical: 36.5% win rate (123 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 17.5% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.7% expected score (110 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (132 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 34.8% expected score (288 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 33.3% expected score (560 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (539 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 31.7% expected score (1,538 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.4% expected score (285 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 37.4% expected score (560 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (2,714 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 28.4% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (533 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (2,116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.5% expected score (710 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (449 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (923 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (292 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (225 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.6% expected score (102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Continuations (1)
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation
16.6%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 36.2% (90% CI: 35.5%-36.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.8% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (36.3%) outperforms Classical (36.5%) by -0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 34.5% (90% CI: 29.7%-39.4%) win rate for white, based on 255 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 33.3% (90% CI: 30.8%-35.8%) win rate for white, based on 955 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 32.1% (90% CI: 30.5%-33.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 34.0% (90% CI: 32.8%-35.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 38.0% (90% CI: 36.6%-39.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 44.8% (90% CI: 42.9%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 40.5% (90% CI: 36.2%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 353 Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 33.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 36.6% (90% CI: 35.1%-38.1%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 36.3% (90% CI: 35.4%-37.2%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 35.1% (90% CI: 33.4%-36.7%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line has a 36.5% (90% CI: 29.6%-43.7%) win rate for white (123 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line is slightly favors black with a 36.2% (90% CI: 35.5%-36.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.