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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score38.3%Range (90% confident): 37.6% – 38.9%Based on 15K games
0%38.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 37.6% – 38.9%
Outcome Distribution
36.9%2.8%60.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nxe5
Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length26 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 38.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 37.6% and 38.9%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -22.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.7% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 36% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 35.7% win rate (3,991 games)
  • 1000-1199: 37.5% win rate (3,777 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.2% win rate (3,130 games)
  • 1400-1599: 35.3% win rate (2,278 games)
  • 1600-1799: 35.8% win rate (1,295 games)
  • 1800-1999: 37.6% win rate (708 games)
  • 2000-2199: 32.5% win rate (246 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.4% win rate (46 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (5 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (29%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.8% win rate (100 games)
  • Bullet: 42.5% win rate (4,923 games)
  • Blitz: 34.7% win rate (6,675 games)
  • Rapid: 33.2% win rate (3,639 games)
  • Classical: 28.8% win rate (139 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 29.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (1,146 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 35.6% expected score (1,629 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (1,184 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (1,122 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (1,715 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (882 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 25.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (913 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (1,398 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (796 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.1% expected score (928 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 20.7% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (478 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (581 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (224 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (297 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 21.7% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.2% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 33.1% expected score (84 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 19.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 36.9% (90% CI: 36.2%-37.5%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 39.2% win rate for white (3.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (42.5%) outperforms Classical (28.8%) by 13.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack?

The Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 35.7% (90% CI: 34.4%-36.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 37.5% (90% CI: 36.2%-38.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 39.2% (90% CI: 37.7%-40.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 35.3% (90% CI: 33.7%-37.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 35.8% (90% CI: 33.7%-38.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 37.6% (90% CI: 34.6%-40.6%) win rate for white, based on 708 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 32.5% (90% CI: 27.7%-37.5%) win rate for white, based on 246 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 46.8% (90% CI: 38.7%-54.9%) win rate for white (100 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.4%-43.7%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 34.7% (90% CI: 33.7%-35.6%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 33.2% (90% CI: 31.9%-34.5%) win rate for white (3.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a 28.8% (90% CI: 22.7%-35.3%) win rate for white (139 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack is slightly favors black with a 36.9% (90% CI: 36.2%-37.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.