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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense

3.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.2%Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 48.5%Based on 3.8K games
0%47.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 48.5%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%6.1%49.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
11.Nh4
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense
Analyzen=3.8K
Avg Length43 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 48.5%), based on 3.8K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 9% → 35%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 9.1% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.5% win rate (10 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.1% win rate (67 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.0% win rate (168 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.8% win rate (493 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.1% win rate (1,298 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.5% win rate (1,504 games)
  • 2500+: 35.4% win rate (299 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (46%), worst in Classical (38%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 43.8% win rate (671 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (2,780 games)
  • Rapid: 46.4% win rate (340 games)
  • Classical: 38.3% win rate (52 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399———
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (110 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (73 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (369 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (989 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (141 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (268 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,119 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (107 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.1% expected score (137 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (2)
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Zaitsev Hybrid
47.8%
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense, Quiet Variation
49.4%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (299 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Rapid (46.4%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 168 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 44.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 493 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 53.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 299 Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 10.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-54.8%) win rate for white (671 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.0%-50.9%) win rate for white (340 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Breyer Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.