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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 49.8%Based on 75K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 49.8%
Outcome Distribution
38.0%22.9%39.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Kxd8
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense
Analyzen=75K
Avg Length46 moves
Sharpness77%
Draw Rate22.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 49.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 49.8%), based on 75K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.4% · Blitz best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 17%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.9% win rate (41 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.4% win rate (133 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.2% win rate (400 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.9% win rate (1,401 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.3% win rate (4,763 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (12,374 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.6% win rate (19,587 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.4% win rate (18,883 games)
  • 2500+: 16.5% win rate (17,384 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (43%), worst in Classical (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 34.9% win rate (20,647 games)
  • Blitz: 39.5% win rate (43,618 games)
  • Rapid: 38.7% win rate (9,633 games)
  • Classical: 33.4% win rate (1,066 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (143 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (167 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (82 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (429 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (706 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,203 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (2,897 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (591 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,281 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (8,057 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (1,797 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (238 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (3,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (12,850 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (3,102 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (273 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (5,243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (11,548 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (2,007 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (7,910 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (7,330 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,776 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (368 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 39.0% (90% CI: 38.7%-39.3%) win rate for white, based on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 46.1% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (40.9%) outperforms Classical (28.5%) by 12.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a sharpness score of 77.1 (drawish), meaning 77.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 46 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 45.0% (90% CI: 38.0%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 133 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 47.9% (90% CI: 43.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 400 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.3%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 10.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 12.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 18.6% (90% CI: 18.1%-19.1%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 59 moves with a 64.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 36.5% (90% CI: 36.0%-37.1%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 28.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 40.9% (90% CI: 40.5%-41.3%) win rate for white (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 19.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 37.1% (90% CI: 36.3%-37.9%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 24.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense has a 28.5% (90% CI: 26.3%-30.8%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 38.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, l'Hermet Variation, Berlin Wall Defense is statistically balanced with a 39.0% (90% CI: 38.7%-39.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.