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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense

970K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.0%Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 46.1%Based on 970K games
0%46.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 46.1%
Outcome Distribution
43.8%4.3%51.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...d6
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense
Analyzen=970K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 46.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 46.1%), based on 970K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.1% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (20,721 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.0% win rate (65,819 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.4% win rate (129,426 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.6% win rate (191,932 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (227,728 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.0% win rate (206,155 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.3% win rate (99,480 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.5% win rate (26,341 games)
  • 2500+: 36.4% win rate (2,240 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.6% win rate (127 games)
  • Bullet: 45.4% win rate (254,033 games)
  • Blitz: 43.4% win rate (525,916 games)
  • Rapid: 42.8% win rate (182,444 games)
  • Classical: 40.1% win rate (7,322 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (8,619 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (8,612 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,442 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (23,764 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (31,850 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (10,008 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (172 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (37,914 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (67,558 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (23,343 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (563 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (48,361 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (104,117 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (37,667 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (1,752 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (49,999 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (130,497 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (44,839 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (2,387 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (43,710 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (118,602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (41,893 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (1,948 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (27,242 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (53,403 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (18,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (426 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (12,560 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (10,966 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (2,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (1,864 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (311 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.8% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 970K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (26K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.9%) by 12.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 129K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 192K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 228K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 206K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.1%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 52.9%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 40.9% (90% CI: 33.8%-48.0%) win rate for white (127 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.9%) win rate for white (254K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for white (526K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white (182K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.0%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.