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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 48.2%Based on 18K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 48.2%
Outcome Distribution
12.2%71.1%16.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Bd7
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length56 moves
Sharpness29%
Draw Rate71.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 47.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 48.2%), based on 18K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.4% · Blitz best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 20% → 6%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.4% win rate (8 games)
  • 1200-1399: 34.5% win rate (26 games)
  • 1400-1599: 20.4% win rate (89 games)
  • 1600-1799: 36.2% win rate (160 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.9% win rate (435 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.1% win rate (1,053 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.7% win rate (1,516 games)
  • 2500+: 5.8% win rate (14,800 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (17%), worst in Classical (7%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 8.0% win rate (7,983 games)
  • Blitz: 16.5% win rate (7,494 games)
  • Rapid: 13.4% win rate (2,353 games)
  • Classical: 7.1% win rate (258 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 17.2% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 25.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (272 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (77 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 10.6% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (642 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (231 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (333 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (956 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (218 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (7,371 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (5,476 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,744 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (209 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Beverwijk Variation
51.4%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 12.2% (90% CI: 11.8%-12.6%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 42.7% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (16.5%) outperforms Classical (7.1%) by 9.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a sharpness score of 28.9 (drawish), meaning 28.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 56 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 36.2% (90% CI: 30.1%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 40.9% (90% CI: 37.1%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 435 Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 41.1% (90% CI: 38.6%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 50 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 42.7% (90% CI: 40.7%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 51 moves with a 12.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 5.8% (90% CI: 5.5%-6.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 57 moves with a 84.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 8.0% (90% CI: 7.6%-8.6%) win rate for white (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 80.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 16.5% (90% CI: 15.8%-17.2%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 64.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 13.4% (90% CI: 12.3%-14.6%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 60.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall has a 7.1% (90% CI: 4.7%-9.9%) win rate for white (258 Lichess games). Draw rate is 72.6%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall is slightly favors black with a 12.2% (90% CI: 11.8%-12.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.