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Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit

19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.3%Range (90% confident): 48.7% – 49.8%Based on 19K games
0%49.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.7% – 49.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.1%6.4%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c5
Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit
Analyzen=19K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.4%

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 49.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.7% and 49.8%), based on 19K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +3.7% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 16.7% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 32%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (16 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.2% win rate (84 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.5% win rate (309 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.7% win rate (832 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.4% win rate (1,876 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (3,989 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.7% win rate (5,430 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.0% win rate (4,796 games)
  • 2500+: 31.7% win rate (1,698 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (58%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 46.0% win rate (5,823 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (11,196 games)
  • Rapid: 50.5% win rate (1,903 games)
  • Classical: 58.1% win rate (106 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (129 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (329 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (427 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (621 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,056 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (184 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,096 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (2,403 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (449 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,390 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,346 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (673 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,487 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (2,927 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (360 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (701 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (871 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Réti Opening
52.0%
Variations (5)
Réti Opening: Réti Accepted
54.7%
Réti Opening: Advance Variation
51.9%
Réti Opening: Anglo-Slav Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Stonewall Line
53.1%
Réti Opening: Anglo-Slav Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
51.0%
Réti Opening: Reversed Blumenfeld Gambit
52.3%
Analyze Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate?

The Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 19K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit perform best?

The Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.0% win rate for white (4.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.8%) outperforms Classical (32.1%) by 16.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit?

The Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 41.7% (90% CI: 37.1%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 309 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 44.3%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 832 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.9%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 40.7% (90% CI: 38.8%-42.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 27.5% draw rate.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.3%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 39.1% (90% CI: 37.3%-41.0%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a 32.1% (90% CI: 24.9%-39.7%) win rate for white (106 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.8%.

Is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit a good opening?

The Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit is statistically balanced with a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.