Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit
19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 19K
- Best context
- 56.8% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 43.4% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.6%
- Draws
- 6.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 61.4% at 0-999, 52.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (149 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (129 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (329 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (427 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (71 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (621 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,056 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (184 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,096 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (2,403 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (449 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (40 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,390 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,346 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (673 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.9% expected score (21 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,487 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (2,927 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (360 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (701 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (871 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (123 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit scores 49.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.7% and 49.8% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate?
Playing the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit perform best?
The Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 57.4% (309 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.4% in Blitz (11K games) against 55.7% in Rapid (1.9K games).
How sharp is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit?
The Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 56.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 309 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 832 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 31.7%, draws 27.5% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 50.5%, draws 10.4% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 58.1%, draws 9.8% and loses 32.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.0%. It rests on 106 Lichess games.
Is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit a good opening?
The Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.1% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.