Réti Opening: Advance Variation
535K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.3%.
Measured over 535K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 535K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 535K
- Best context
- 52.6% at 0-999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.1% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.7% at 0-999, 56.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,214 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (2,315 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (409 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,260 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (7,259 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,683 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (11,251 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (17,020 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (4,528 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (112 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (17,004 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (35,530 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (9,084 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (843 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (188 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (24,576 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (61,903 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (14,482 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (973 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (113 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (33,065 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (80,431 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (19,219 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (1,100 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (161 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (30,699 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (63,759 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (11,899 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (317 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (81 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (24,402 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (33,378 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (3,649 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (85 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (10,533 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (6,642 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (252 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation scores 46.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.1% and 46.3% — from 535K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 535K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate?
Playing the Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 535K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Réti Opening: Advance Variation perform best?
The Réti Opening: Advance Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.5% (3.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Réti Opening: Advance Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.1% in Blitz (308K games) against 47.1% in Rapid (65K games).
How sharp is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation?
The Réti Opening: Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 102K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 134K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.0%, draws 8.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.6%, draws 1.7% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 693 Lichess games.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 157K Lichess games.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 308K Lichess games.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 65K Lichess games.
What is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
Is the Réti Opening: Advance Variation a good opening?
The Réti Opening: Advance Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.3% of its games and loses 51.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.